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DESK READ · COMPLIMENTARY SAMPLE · SETNOVA ADVISORY
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SETNOVA ADVISORY · TREASURY & ALM Treasury Morning BriefSeptember CPI lands this morning with the 2-year 91 bp above the 3.88% effective funds rate and the 10-year 10 bp lower than Oct 5. Wednesday, October 14, 2026 · Treasury curve as of Oct 13 close · Fed funds 3.75–4.00% (raised Sep 16)
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The Read This morning's September CPI (8:30 ET) is the week's test, and the inflation backdrop going into it remains above the 2% goal on every measure: August headline CPI 3.4% and August core CPI 2.4%, with August headline PCE 3.4% and August core PCE 3.0%. The labor side is softer: September payrolls rose 29,000 and the September unemployment rate was 4.2%. The FOMC raised the target range a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% on September 16 by a 12–0 vote, and the September projections put the 2026 median for the federal funds rate at 4.1% (central tendency 4.1–4.4%). Tuesday's close, the first after the Columbus Day holiday, eased the long end more than the front. The 2-year closed at 4.79%, 1 bp lower than Oct 9, and the 10-year at 5.21%, 3 bp lower than Oct 9; the 30-year closed at 5.56%, 4 bp lower than Oct 9. On the week the 2-year is 5 bp lower than Oct 5 and the 10-year 10 bp lower than Oct 5, leaving 2s10s at +42 bp. The 2-year sits 91 bp above the 3.88% effective funds rate. For a deposit-funded balance sheet the same levels cut both ways. They set what new money earns and hold the market value of AFS securities down: both register in the next EVE and AOCI run. The 10-year's decline on the week (10 bp lower than Oct 5) lifts those values at the margin without changing the level. Funding has not eased: the top of Bankrate's one-year CD list is 4.75% and its top high-yield savings rate 4.27%, advertised consumer yields that frame where renewal betas get tested.
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| Rates & Curve | Curve Oct 13 close · EFFR, SOFR Oct 9 · policy rates Sep 16 |
Fed funds target 3.75–4.00% FOMC · raised Sep 16 | Effective funds 3.88% NY Fed · Oct 9 | SOFR 3.87% NY Fed · Oct 9 | IORB 3.90% Fed · since Sep 17 | Discount window 4.00% Primary credit · Fed | 2-year 4.79% Treasury · Oct 13 | 5-year 5.00% Treasury · Oct 13 | 10-year 5.21% Treasury · Oct 13 | 30-year 5.56% Treasury · Oct 13 | 30Y mortgage 7.40% Freddie · Oct 8 |
Treasury par yields at the Oct 13 close. SOFR and effective funds are NY Fed figures for Oct 9. IORB 3.90% and ON RRP 3.75% per the Sep 16 FOMC implementation note. 30-day SOFR average 3.85% (Oct 13). Mortgage: Freddie Mac PMMS, Oct 8.
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Curve Snapshot & This Week's Data | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y | | 4.26% | 4.34% | 4.48% | 4.79% | 5.00% | 5.21% | 5.56% | | +4 | +4 | +1 | −5 | −6 | −10 | −10 |
Treasury par yields, Oct 13 close. Bottom row: change since the Oct 5 close, in basis points. 2s10s +42 bp Treasury · Oct 13 | 3M–10Y +95 bp Treasury · Oct 13 | 5s30s +56 bp Treasury · Oct 13 |
| TUE 13 | 6-, 13- and 26-week bill auctions (completed) | | | WED 14 | September CPI and real earnings (today) | 8:30 ET | | WED 14 | Beige Book | 2:00 ET | | WED 14 | 17-week bill auction | | | THU 15 | September PPI | 8:30 ET | | THU 15 | 4- and 8-week bill auctions | | | FRI 16 | September import and export prices | 8:30 ET | | SAT 17 | FOMC blackout begins (Oct 27–28 meeting) | |
Ahead: 13- and 26-week bill auctions Mon Oct 19; 20-year bond reopening auction Wed Oct 21; 5-year TIPS auction Thu Oct 22; FOMC meeting Oct 27–28; Q3 GDP advance estimate and September personal income and outlays Thu Oct 29. Oct 14: Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, discussion on supervision and regulation, IIF Annual Membership Summit, Bangkok; and a speech at the Bangkok Economic Festival (on the Board's published calendar) Oct 15: Chair Warsh, conversation with IMF Managing Director Georgieva, Bangkok (on the Board's published calendar)
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Markets in Brief Equities closed slightly lower on Oct 13 than on Oct 12: the S&P 500 at 7,805.45, the Nasdaq Composite at 27,204.38 and the Dow at 51,670.10. The dollar and oil figures carry their own earlier dates; Brent spot at $125.44 (Oct 6) stands far above WTI at $96.24 (Oct 6), an energy-price backdrop for this week's inflation data. | S&P 500 | 7,805.45 | Oct 13 | | Nasdaq Composite | 27,204.38 | Oct 13 | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51,670.10 | Oct 13 | | Broad dollar index | 121.60 | Oct 9 | | EUR / USD | 1.1193 | Oct 9 | | USD / JPY | 158.34 | Oct 9 | | WTI (Cushing) spot | $96.24 | Oct 6 | | Brent spot | $125.44 | Oct 6 |
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Overnight & the Curve Overnight rates sit inside the 3.75–4.00% range: SOFR printed 3.87% and the effective funds rate 3.88% for Oct 9, against IORB at 3.90% and the ON RRP rate at 3.75%. The 30-day SOFR average was 3.85% (Oct 13). On the curve, the 3-month bill closed at 4.26%, 1 bp higher than Oct 9, and 2s10s ended Oct 13 at +42 bp, 5 bp flatter than Oct 5 (+47 bp).
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Funding & Deposit Market Retail competition remains the binding constraint: the top of Bankrate's one-year CD list is 4.75% and its top high-yield savings rate 4.27%. The discount window (primary credit) is 4.00%. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed was 7.40% on Oct 8, up from 7.28% the prior week, and the 15-year 6.73%, up from 6.60%.
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What It Means for Your Balance Sheet | ● | Deposits: Renewal pricing is being set against a 4.75% top one-year CD and a 4.27% top high-yield savings rate on Bankrate's lists. A treasury team would measure the gap between maturing CD rates and offered renewal rates, and what each point of deposit beta does to the cost of deposits and to NII. | | ● | Investments: The same levels set what cash flow earns when it is put to work and keep AFS marks under pressure. Measure the AFS mark and AOCI change per 25 bp of rate move; which securities or maturities, the timing and whether to reinvest at all are the committee's. | | ● | IRR / ALCO: With 2s10s at +42 bp and the 2-year 91 bp above the 3.88% effective funds rate, re-run NII and EVE at current levels and check NEV and 5300 or call-report IRR measures against policy limits; the rising-rate shocks are where fixed-rate duration shows up. |
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Deposit Competition | Product | Top APY | Institution | | 12-month CD | 4.75% | Bankrate 1-yr CD list | | High-yield savings | 4.27% | Bankrate savings list |
Each figure is the top of Bankrate's list for that product. These are advertised consumer yields, not comparable one-for-one with a wholesale rate or a cost of funds. Bankrate, retrieved Oct 14, 2026. Discount window (primary credit) 4.00%. FHLB advance and brokered CD rates are not shown: no primary source for either was available for Oct 13's close.
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Banking News | ● | Oct 13, 2026 · U.S. Treasury U.S. Treasury announced what it called record enforcement actions against Bank of America. | | ● | Oct 9, 2026 · Federal Reserve Results of the 2025 Survey of Consumer Finances released. | | ● | Oct 8, 2026 · Federal Reserve Enforcement action against American Express Company over detection and reporting of suspicious activity related to money laundering. | | ● | Sep 30, 2026 · NCUA Jackson Area Federal Credit Union closes; Five Star Credit Union assumes members and shares. |
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Regulatory Watch | ● | Oct 2, 2026 · Federal Reserve proposed: Regulation O modernization proposal: comment period extended to Nov 4. | | ● | Sep 30, 2026 · Federal Reserve final: Two final rules on stress test transparency and stress capital buffer volatility; averaging of stress capital buffer requirements begins in 2028; a separate noninterest income model change proposed for comment. | | ● | Sep 11, 2026 · NCUA, FDIC, Federal Reserve, OCC proposed: Proposed third-party risk management guidance (principles-based, non-binding); comments due Nov 16. |
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The one that matters is your book. Setnova Advisory provides measurement-led treasury and ALM support for community banks and credit unions.
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This is a generic market brief, not tied to any institution. It measures how the day’s moves affect a deposit-funded balance sheet generally. Sources: Federal Reserve H.15 & FOMC; NY Fed/FRED; U.S. Treasury; BLS; BEA; Freddie Mac PMMS; EIA; NCUA; Bankrate (retrieved Oct 14, 2026) © 2026 Setnova Advisory · Treasury & ALM
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